Why the Clean Tech Boom Went Bust
Let me say first please read the whole thing at the link if you can. I barely scratched the surface and yet still blockquoted more than what I usually allow myself.
I post this to give us a look at what we need to work on, how to cope with the demands upon us as a nation by the necessities on getting off oil and still having a vibrant economy. This is not intended as any kind of slap at President Obama. it is intended to encourage us to watch policy carefully.
We have a lot to do. This article gives us an idea of where to start.
John Doerr was crying. The billionaire venture capitalist had come to the end of his now-famous March 8, 2007, TED talk on climate change and renewable energy, and his emotions were getting the better of him. Doerr had begun by describing how his teenage daughter told him that it was up to his generation to fix global warming, since they had caused it. After detailing how the public and private sectors had so far failed at this, Doerr, who made his fortune investing early in companies that became some of Silicon Valley’s biggest names—Netscape, Amazon.com, and Google, among others—exhorted the audience and his peers (largely one and the same) to band together and transform the nation’s energy supply. “I really, really hope we multiply all of our energy, all of our talent, and all of our influence to solve this problem,” he said, falling silent as he fought back tears. “Because if we do, I can look forward to the conversation I’m going to have with my daughter in 20 years.”
Wind
Promise: The US has the potential to generate enough wind energy to meet the nation’s total consumption 12 times over.
Reality: At $35 a megawatt-hour, wind looked like a good deal back in 2007, when wholesale electric prices ranged between $45 and $85 per megawatt-hour. But the natural gas boom, plus the 2008 recession, drove prices under $30 by 2009, eliminating wind’s financial edge. Also, NIMBY protests have made getting approval for a wind farm in the US as difficult as getting it for a coal-fired plant.
Outlook: Cheaper prices for turbines should result in lower costs for wind power by 2014. Though growth has slowed since 2008, this sector is still expected to cover about a third of any increased energy consumption in the US between now and 2035.
Fuel Cells
Promise: Zero-emission energy for everything from laptops to cars to power stations, all fueled by the most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen.
Reality: To compete with fossil fuels, the electricity from fuel cells needs to sell for around $30 per kilowatt. Right now, that figure is about $49. Also, there are only about 60 hydrogen refueling stations in the country, serving around 200 small vehicles and 15 buses. Industry leader FuelCell Energy lost $56.3 million in 2010 and has never turned a profit.
Outlook: Even if fuel cells become cheaper and more reliable, a workable hydrogen infrastructure is still decades away.
Charging Stations
Promise: A network of 240- and 480-volt charging-station kiosks could dot roadsides and parking lots, like ATMs for electric cars.
Reality: The fastest charge for a Nissan Leaf takes about 30 minutes at 480 volts. Unless we could suddenly install enough stations to guarantee no waiting (there are currently only 1,800 nationwide), the time commitment means that recharging on the go just isn’t feasible. For the most part, electric-car owners are limited to as much driving as they can get from a single at-home charge.
Outlook: The cost of kiosks (up to $35,000 each) plus relatively low demand means they’ll be limited to metropolitan areas for years to come.